2024 Recap and 2025 Forecast: What’s Ahead for Austin's Real Estate Market?
As Dr. Clare Knapp of Unlock MLS aptly stated, “steady as she goes” characterized 2024, and this trend is likely to persist into 2025. We share this outlook and anticipate a modest fluctuation in the Austin real estate market, with potential increases or decreases of approximately 5%.
December 2024 Austin-Round Rock housing statistics from UnlockMLS:
Median Sale: $450,000 ⬆️ 1.4% from previous year.
Closed Sales: 2,303 ⬆️ 2..5% from previous year.
Average Days on Market: 80 ⬆️ 0 days from previous year.
New Listings: 2,070 New Listings ⬆️ 9.5% from previous year.
Pending: 2,011 ⬆️ 3.1% from previous year.
Active Listings: 8,494 ⬆️ 10.1% from previous year.
Months of Inventory: 3.8 ⬆️ .8 months
While inventory levels continue to rise, many sellers remain reluctant to compromise their equity, which is helping to stabilize home values and slow their decline. However, increased buyer activity will be essential to reverse this trend and move the market in a more positive direction in the coming year. This activity will largely depend on interest rates, which are expected to remain in the 6-7% range through the first half of 2025, with some optimism that they could dip into the 5% range in the latter half of the year. For now, both buyers and sellers are approaching the market with caution, and mid-tier market demand remains tempered by current interest rates.
Nationally, the real estate market experienced a slowdown in 2024. According to The New York Times, last year’s housing market was the slowest in decades. The combination of the post-pandemic housing boom and higher interest rates (compared to the historically low rates seen a few years ago) had a significant impact on the U.S. housing market as a whole. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed that sales of existing homes in June 2024 declined by 5.4% compared to the previous year.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of optimism. In one encouraging development, NAR reported that existing home sales in November 2024 were up 6.1% year-over-year—the largest annual gain since June 2021. We experienced an increase in calls, sales, and activity during this time at Wagner Real Estate as well.
Unlocking Buyer Incentives: How Sellers Are Covering Costs in Austin's Market
As a buyer, what was true in 2024 remains the case heading into 2025—you’re in the driver’s seat. Sellers are often offering incentives, including frequently covering part or all of the buyer's commission, based on our experience. That said, well-priced, renovated, and staged homes continue to sell relatively quickly. Homes that have been on the market for an extended period often present more flexibility in price and incentives. However, it’s important to note that this doesn’t always equate to the best deal—consult with us to understand all the details and ensure you maximize value for your investment.
We are also starting to see data on the impact of new laws regarding real estate commission transparency on buyers and sellers. According to Jon Stubbs of Clever, “Our September 2024 survey of local agents found that the average real estate commission in Texas is 5.76%, which is higher than the national average of 5.32%.”
At Wagner Real Estate, we have consistently been able to negotiate most or all of the buyer’s commission to be covered by the seller. We attribute this to Austin’s current buyer’s market, higher interest rates, and, of course, our expertise in negotiation.
Seller Tips: Secrets to Selling Fast in a Slow Market Insights from Wagner Real Estate
I know I sound like a broken record, but I’ll let my clients do the talking:
"Working with Micah Wagner and Wagner Real Estate on the listing of our home was the best decision our family made all year. From the earliest consultation to our successful closing, Micah treated us like an extension of his own family and guided us with professionalism, kindness, and dedication. We spent several months preparing to list and leveraged Micah’s knowledge of market dynamics, as well as his network of providers, to ready our home. The results speak for themselves—our home listed on time, stood out in a tough market, went under contract in 4 days with a full-price cash offer, and closed successfully. We’ll wholeheartedly recommend Micah to our friends and family moving forward." - Ted & Laura Wilson
In a slower market, being proactive as a seller is more important than ever. Maximizing preparation, staging, renovations, and repairs—both inside and out—is crucial. With buyers having more options, it’s essential to make every showing count by highlighting your property’s unique value compared to the competition. At Wagner Real Estate, we’ll connect you with trusted professionals to ensure your home looks its best and is ready to list and sell successfully.
Austin Commercial Real Estate Market
New year forecast 2025 to be big for Austin-area retail construction.
Industrial transaction volumes remain strong, with $872 million in deals so far this year per Linked In Real Estate trends 2025.
Elevated rent prices continue to be an issue.
Office space vacancy also an issue.
For those looking to get into the residential market, or expand their current portfolio, we’re still recommending a $300,000 price point in surrounding cities. Homes in this price point aren’t nearly as affecting by current and future interest rates and therefore offer a potentially more stable investment.
Lease activity is currently slow, but typically picks back up in spring and early summer.
Key cities:
Manor
Leander
Hutto
Kyle
Lockhart