Austin Market Pulse: A Year in Review + Where We Stand Heading Into 2026
Short version: Inventory is up, price cuts are common, and demand is steady—but not strong enough yet to fully catch up with supply. Buyers have leverage, sellers need precision, and the market is still working through its post-peak reset.
The Big Picture from the Past Year
Over the last year, the Austin market has leaned more toward cooling and recalibration than quiet strength. Sales activity trailed last year’s pace, inventory climbed, and pricing power shifted unevenly across the market. While median prices in certain segments managed to hold or post modest gains, that stability often came alongside longer days on market and a growing share of listings requiring price reductions to attract serious interest.
Demand didn’t disappear, but it lost urgency. Pending activity held relatively steady, especially in new construction, yet the broader picture shows supply consistently running ahead of demand. The Activity Index declined year-over-year, and the new listing-to-pending ratio remained well below long-term norms—both signals that buyers had more options and less pressure to move quickly.
Some recurring patterns from the data:
Sales volume: Down year-over-year, reflecting fewer completed transactions across much of the metro.
Pricing: Mixed results, with upper-tier homes holding value better while more price-sensitive segments faced ongoing pressure.
Days on Market: Longer timelines becoming the rule rather than the exception.
Price reductions: Widespread, with more than half of active listings adjusting at least once.
Translation: The market didn’t stall out, but it downshifted. Momentum slowed, leverage tilted toward buyers, and 2025 became less about chasing growth and more about finding the right price in a more balanced, and sometimes unforgiving, landscape.
Inventory: More Choice, More Negotiation
As of January 22, 2026, Austin is sitting on 12,744 active residential listings, which is 12.0% higher than this time last year. While that’s still well below the late-June 2025 peak of 18,146, the makeup of today’s inventory tells the real story.
More than half of all active listings (52.7%) have already had at least one price reduction. That’s the market’s way of saying: “We’re still figuring out where the meeting point between buyers and sellers really is.”
New Construction vs. Resale
Out of those 12,744 listings:
3,948 are new construction
8,796 are resale homes
Builders have been more aggressive with incentives and pricing, and buyers have noticed. Resale sellers, on the other hand, have generally been slower to adjust, which shows up in both days on market and pricing behavior.
Demand Check: What Pendings Are Telling Us
There are currently 3,478 homes under contract, essentially flat year-over-year (down just 0.5% from January 2025). Stability here is encouraging, but when paired with rising inventory, it points to a market where supply is still outpacing demand.
Breaking that down:
1,441 pendings are new construction
2,037 are resale
Once again, builders are capturing a larger share of buyer attention.
The Activity Index: Market Energy Levels
Think of the Activity Index as the market’s heart rate. It measures what percentage of active listings are going under contract.
Overall Activity Index: 21.4% (down from 23.5% last year)
New Construction: 26.74%
Resale: 18.80%
At these levels, much of the resale market sits in the softening-to-contraction range. That means more inventory, slower movement, and increased pressure on pricing—especially in areas where buyer demand is thinner.
Some Austin zip codes are already in what data analysts politely call “contraction” and what sellers often experience as “Why hasn’t anyone booked a showing yet?”
Supply vs. Demand: The Ratio That Matters
The new listing to pending ratio currently sits at 0.62. In plain English: for every new listing hitting the market, fewer than two-thirds are going under contract.
For context, Austin’s 25-year average is 0.82.
Year-to-date, new listings exceed pending listings by 652 homes, which confirms what many buyers are feeling—there’s more to choose from, and less pressure to rush.
Months of Inventory: Who Has the Leverage?
Austin is currently at 4.52 months of inventory, up 13.8% year-over-year.
This doesn’t scream “oversupply,” but it does whisper, “Buyers, you have a little more say now.” In many resale-heavy submarkets, conditions are already leaning into buyer-advantage territory, where concessions, credits, and price adjustments are becoming normal instead of awkward.
Pricing Trends
Average sold price: $579,638 (about 15% below the May 2022 peak)
Median sold price: $430,000 (down 21.82% from peak)
Lower-priced homes are feeling more pressure, while the top quartile has managed modest year-over-year appreciation of nearly 4%. The gap between “great home in a great spot” and “everything else” has never been more obvious.
The Long View (A Little Optimism, With Math)
Austin’s 25-year average appreciation rate is about 4.6% annually. If the market has found a cyclical bottom near today’s median price of $430,000, a return to peak pricing around $550,000 would take roughly five and a half years, landing somewhere around mid-2031—assuming a steady, boring, non-dramatic economy (which, historically, may be a bold assumption).
Market Momentum (or Lack Thereof)
Two final indicators paint a clear picture:
Absorption Rate: 7.50% (historical average: 31.51%)
Market Flow Score: 0.22 (long-term average: 6.57)
Translation: Homes are moving, but the market isn’t exactly jogging. It’s more of a casual, coffee-in-hand stroll.
What This Means for You
Buyers: You have leverage that hasn’t existed in years—especially in resale. Price, repairs, and concessions are all on the table.
Sellers: Pricing right from day one matters more than ever. The market will tell you quickly if you missed the mark.
Investors & Agents: Hyper-local analysis is the name of the game. Citywide averages hide big differences by neighborhood and price range.
The Bottom Line
Austin’s market isn’t in free fall—and it’s not in a comeback tour either. It’s in a phase of gradual stabilization. Supply has improved, demand is steady but selective, and momentum remains muted.
For now, the winning strategy is simple (even if it’s not always easy): be patient, be precise, and let the data—not the headlines—guide the decision.
And yes, if you want to talk about how this plays out on your street instead of in a spreadsheet, I’m always happy to dive in.